Ensemble Prediction System COSMO-ME-EPS (Operational since 2014)
The atmospheric short-range ensemble prediction system (COSMO-ME EPS) based on the LETKF analysis and the COSMO model is running operationally at CNMCA (pre-operational since July 2013). The relevant characteristics of the atmospheric COSMO-ME EPS are:
Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated 20 times on the same domain of the LETKF system.
IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the LETKF system; lateral boundary conditions are from the most recent ECMWF-EPS run.
Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies.
Forecast range: 72 hours at 00/12 UTC.
Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction System COSMO-IT-EPS (Operational since 2018)
The atmospheric short-range ensemble prediction system (COSMO-IT EPS) based on the high-resolution LETKF analysis and the COSMO model is running operationally at CNMCA. The relevant characteristics of the atmospheric COSMO-IT EPS are:
Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated 20 times over Italy, with 2.2 km resolution and 65 vertical levels.
IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the high-resolution LETKF system; lateral boundary conditions are from the most recent ECMWF-EPS run.
Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies.
Forecast range: 48 hours at 00/12 UTC.
The main features of the operational implementations of the COSMO-ME-EPS and COSMO-IT EPS are summarized in the following table: